21 뽺Ʈٹ
ڸ顤
"ڸ GDP 25%
, ÿ û Ⱦ
ݩ߾ ƴ ر 鿩ٺߡ
̱ ߱ λ 2009, " ε 500 ȴ" å ̱Ϻѱ ÿ Ʈ ö. ̱ ġ (Friedman62) '100 (Next 100 Years)' å̴. װ 1 ̱ '10 (The Next Decade)' ļ Ⱓߴ. 500 ̾ ܱ ٷ ̴.
å ѱ 谡 ϴ '߱ ' . ߱ ߵ ϰ 10 ⸦ , ݴ Ϻ ƽþ ִ Ŀ λѴٴ ̴. ̷ ̱ ߱ Ϻ, ƽþ 簡 ұ?
23 ػ罺 ƾ 繫ǿ '̱ ǥ' " ǥ ʴ´" ߴ. ü ǥ̱ ̴. " ̷ ̱ ٸ ̿ ν ڽ Ű ̴. 븦 ʾƵ ֵ. () ȴ." ״ İ ߴ. " Ϻ ߱ رϴ ߱ , ѱ Ʈʷ Ϻ Ѵ" ̴. ״ ѱ "(thorn)" ǥߴ. "Ϻ ƴ Ǵ " .
̱ ŷڴ Ȯߴ. "̱ GDP 25% Ѵ. ߱, Ϻ, ģ Ը. ѱ ڱ GDP 5~10% ̱ ϰ ִ. ̱ ؿ ڴ ؿ 22.5% Ѵ. ̱ ִ ä, ü ̱ 忡 ٸ ϰ ִ. ̱ . ̷ ̱ ϱ 谡 ٱȭ ô밡 ٰ Ѵ. Ͼ ٱȭ ̱ Ϻ, ߱, 2 ̴."
170 Ѵ ܴ ü. ڳڴ ġ ڻ ״ 1996 ֳ ָ ΰ ġܱ ũũ 'Ʈ(StratforStrategic Forecasting )' . Ŵ ö 繫ǿ 70 ĭ̷ å ϰ ־. 10 ϴ , ̶ũ̶Ͻź ģ þ ɵ ٹϰ ִ.
⼭ ߰Ǵ 220 ϰ , ȸ ǵ̴. ܱ ڰ ϸ鼭, Ʈ 迡 Ű ̴. ƾ ó 繫 JP&ü̽ ǹ ִ. 긮ο ö. ̱ '(Shadow) CIA' θ. ġȺ о߿ ̰ Ѵٴ ̴. м ߷ ų 80% '21 뽺Ʈٹ' ް ִ.
״ ̱ Ȯϰ ߱ ر ϴ ϱ? ȭ ϴ Ϻ λ ϴ ϱ? ѿ ݺ ܵ ѱ ̶ ٰϴ ϱ?
- ̱ ġ װ ̲ ִ ũũ Ʈ 繫ǿ Ű 10 ǵ ڽ ظ ϰ ִ./ƾ=賲
̱ ̶ ٸ ̱ ġ ̴١̱
翬 ְ ϴµ ϸ ¼ ߹ģ̱ ΰ?
"̱ Ų ù . 뿵 뿵 ƴ϶ ̶ ̵ ü ̴. ̱ ڽ ð ġ ߴ. ̱ ڽ ġ ʴ. θ 뿵 . ػ Ȯϴ , ٸ ϴ ̴. ̱ε ʴ´. 뵵 δ㽺, Ǵ ͵ ȴ. 20ۿ ȵ ̶ ٷ . ̱ε ̱ ѱ ̷ å ٰ Ѵ."
ϸ Ǵ ƴѰ?
"̱ ػ ϰ ִ. 25% ϰ ִ. ̱ε ʰ ø ߱, ε ΰ? ѱ ƴѰ? ѱ ̱ ǴĿ ̴°? ̱ Ŵ Ŀ ̴. ̱ , ȵ ġ (ۯѥ)ϴ Ұϴ."
̱ ϰ ִٴ ó Ƶ鿩 ִ. ̱ 'ε 踦 뱹'̶ ϳ?
" ؿԴ. 1970 Ʈ Ǿ ġڰ ̱ Ȳ ̱ Ѵٴ ̾. 1930 Ȳ . 1980 Ϻ Ŀ ڵ Ϻ ̱ ̱ ̶ ߴ. ."
2008 ?
" ° ⿴ ̴. EU ϸ غϰ ִ. ̷ο , '̱ Ѵ' ̱ ġ ø ̶ ̴. ߹ Ʊ ̴. ̾߸ ̱ ̴. ̱ ְ ȣ ſٰ ϴ ̴."
̱ε õ̰, ̷̶ ˰ ִ.
"̴. ̱ ξ ϰ ̹(subtle)ϴ. ̱ε ܼϰ ູϴٰ ģ. ʴ. 밡 ¾ ̱ ̹ Դ. ̱ ִ. ̱ 鿡 Ҿ(anxiety) Ȱ ִ. '翬 ְ ϴµ ϸ ¼' ϸ鼭 Ѵ. ̴ ̱ ȸ ϰ ϴ ÿ ϰ Ҵ. ̱ ε ߱ ʿ ̴. ſ ҷð Ϻ ʿߴ ó ̴. 츮 е ٴ ̱ ʿ ϴ ̴. ̱ ȥ Ҿ ãƴٴѴ.
϶. 츮 ٸ ̸ ̴. ̱ ̹ ִ. ܺο '츮 ڰ ƴϴ' ִ ߿ߴ. 밡 ̱ Դ. θ Ҵ. ̱ ̹ڵ ߴٴ ְ ;Ѵ. װ ̲ ̴. ̱ ѱε鵵 . 鿡 ū ΰ? ٽ ѱ ư ƴѰ? ̷ ̴̱. ҷ? Ϻ? ߱? ̱ еϸ Ǵ ̴."
- ּȣ choish@chosun.com
߱ 10 غ ʾơ
߱ ϳ?
"λ(rise) ƴ ر(collapse) ؾ Ѵ. ߱ ؿ ÿ Ȱ ƴ. ٽ ̴. 6 Ϸ 3 ̸ ̷ . 44000 6 ̸ . 13 10 ̻ īó ӿ ִ ̴. 6000 ٸ ߱ ִ. 2 . ̰ ߱ 5% ̸̴. ߱ ƴϴ."
߱?
"߱ (internal economy) . ̱ ǰ Ѵ. ߱ ܺ ̳ . ̿ ǰ ִ. ϰ ٷ . ̻ Ѵ. ӱ ó ʱ ͼ Ѵ. ΰġ ̵Ϸ ̱ϡϺѱ Ƽ ִ."
߱ ġ?
"1989 Ϻ . Ϻ ν ڿ ý رϰ ־. ߱ó Ϻ ܱ ڻ 鿴. ߱ Ŭ ߴٴ ȣ. ٸ ع ã´. Ϻ ."
߱ ع?
"߱ Ǿ γ . ڸ ã ÷ ̵ ε ڸ ȸ Ҿϰ Ѵ. ̵ ߱ 6000 ŵ йؾ ̴. ŵֵ 漺 ְ. ߱ ع ε ϴ ͻ̴."
10, ߱?
"10 ߱ ش ؾ Ѵ. ذϱ ¼ ó ų ΰ? ƴϸ 20 ߹ó ǿ Ҿ Ͽ ΰ?"
- AP
Ϻ ܰ ƽþ ְ ͡
Ϻ ߴµ.
" ߱ ϴ. ϰ . Ϻ ˰ ذ ɷ ִ. ϱ̴. ( Ÿ) ܰ° 밨 ִ. ѱ Ѵ. Ϻ ܺο ͺ ξ ȸ ϴ ȸ. ũ, , θ ִ ϰڴ°?"
, ȭ Ȱ ִ.
"Ϻ ü 20 'Ҿ 20'̶ Ѵ. ̰ Ϻ ǥ ش. Ϻ ġ ̴. Ϻ ϸ鼭 ȸ ٽ ġ ߴ. 20 Ҿ ƴ϶ ġ ̴."
Ѱ?
"Ϻ ̻ ư ġ ȣ . Ϻ ȸ ٲ Ѵ. Ϻ е ִ. ߱ó ӿ ִ 10 α ٴ ̴. ȸ Ҿ ߵ ִ ٷ Ϻ̴."
ƴµ.
"2 Ϻ ' ݵ ¸ϰڴ' ʾҴ. ( ϴ Ⱓ) Ű ̴. ٸ ִ ."
鼭 Ϻ 輺 ?
"Ϻ ٺ õڿ ٴ ̴. Ϻ ػ 뿡 ϸ Ҵ´. ȣ繫 , ī , ߱ ΰ Ϻ ̴. Ϻ Ȱ ִ. () Ⱑ ذå ã ϸ ٽ ִ. Ϻ ȸϸ ʿ ر ų ̴. Ϻ ó ؾ Ѵ."
- ° ecaro@chosun.com
ѱ 10~20⳻ Ϻ ð ȴ١
ѱ?
"( Ű) ѹݵ ߱Ϻþƿ ѷ ź . ϴ ߱ 5 Ŀ . 10~20 ȿ ̴. ѱε ϴ . ѱ ٷ ̱ ʿ ̴. ĥ ̴."
ѱ ֺ ݱ?
"̱ ٸ ȯ ̴. Ϻ ݴ ʰ ̴. ߱ ѿ Ҵ ¿ ݴ ã ƴ."
ѱ ر ̷ ʶ߸ ̶ ִ.
"ѱ ϰ ִ. ʿ ϵ ̴. 10 뽺 . ڿ, 뵿¿ ں û ó Ѵ. ѱ ϵ ְ ñϴ. ߱ θ ϱ ޱ ̴. þƵ صƽþƿ ȭǰ ִ. Ϻ Ÿ ʹ ִ. ѱ ϵǸ ū ȸ ̴. Ǹ ѱ 뱹 ̰ Ϻ (thorn) 簡 ̴. ƴ, ȴٴ ̴."
10Ⱓ ѱ ̱ ± ̶ ߴµ.
" ѱ Ϻ ϸ ߱ ҽѴ. ٰ ̱ 迡 ִ ͵ ƴϴ. Ϻ ߱ ѱ ̱ ʿ ̴. ̱ Ϻ ߱ ߱ ѱ ̴. ѱ Ը ߽ ƴ. ߱ (⸦ غϱ ) ѱ ̴. ̱ κ Ȯν ߱ Ű ̴."
